Travel Weekly - January 20, 2003 Late bookings ride the Wave - Wave season is period of high-volume cruise sales between January and March Rebecca Tobin It's mid-January, and in the cruise industry that can mean only one thing: Wave season is here. But since 9/11, some are saying the nature of Wave may be changing somewhat, given unresolved world events, a shaky economy and the now-ubiquitous close-in booking trend. For the uninitiated, Wave is a period of high-volume cruise sales between, roughly, January and March. Wave season has been lengthening out for years: The selling period in question began with Wave Week in the late 1970s and then extended to Wave Month. Even now, nobody can seem to put a finger on its actual start or stop. But the tendency for clients to book close to the sailing date, in particular, could push the Wave season even longer, as some clients wait until late March or April to book their summer travel plans. "We're swamped," said Steven Sibille, president of New Orleans-based Crown's Adventures and Sea. "But I should be selling summer.... I think the consumer's catching on that buying in advance is not a good deal. "It's probably going to be a very long Wave," he added. "But it's probably not one to be proud of because it's going to be people selling last-minute deals. "Right now, it's more expensive to buy a cruise on Royal Caribbean or Carnival in September, during hurricane season, than for one in February," he said. Timothy Conder, a cruise industry analyst for A.G. Edwards, said cruise lines typically fill 30% to 35% of their annual bookings during the Wave season. "Last year, it was probably a little less," Conder said. "Nor do I think it'll happen this year." On average, he said, "people are booking, at most, 120 days out and closer." But changing booking patterns haven't changed the way cruise executives place importance on Wave. Holland America Line's senior vice president of sales and marketing, David Giersdorf, said his line starts planning for Wave season in April the year before. This year, HAL launched a series of TV and magazine spots in mid-January as well as promotional materials for agents. "We take it very seriously," Giersdorf said. "During those opening eight weeks of the new year, we need to finish the winter season and get off to a good, strong start to the summer." Nor has agents' enthusiasm for the period dampened: Agencies contacted by Travel Weekly--especially those serving snowbird clients in the North and Northeast--said they were busy with clients. Jeff Sturman, owner of Best Cruises in Edison, N.J., said clients are "throwing credit cards at you." Andy Stuart, senior vice president of sales and marketing for Norwegian Cruise Line, said the number of agents participating in NCL's annual "Sale of All Sails" promotion was at a record high this year. Both Sturman and Mary Jean Tully, chairman of the Cruise Professionals in Mississauga, Ontario, reported surprising interest in summer Europe bookings. "A lot of people are getting fed up with the indecisiveness, and they want to take advantage of the deals," Tully said. "They're cognizant of what itineraries they do, but there's definitely an increase in European business over this time last year." But Sturman also said last year's booking season stretched almost through the summer--another indication that strong bookings may be seen year-round. Other agents reported surprise bookings in December, typically one of the slowest months of the year and this year rife with negative publicity due to Norwalk-like virus outbreaks. Another cruise agency trend: Many travel agents reported sending their clients to their Web sites--especially clients who were interested in low-priced Caribbean cruises. Cruise Value Center in East Brunswick, N.J., still sells plenty of $299 cruises, marketing vice president Spencer Kivet said, but he added, "We try to push our last-minute clients to the Web." "We'll give them service after the sale," he said. Pricing, analyst Conder said, is "flattish or slightly down" compared with Wave season 2002. One notable difference in this year's Wave season is the lack of bragging by cruise companies about record days of reservations and sales activities. Cruise executives, once eager to share their Wave success stories, are subdued or even muzzled.   Back         Top of Page

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